WOWY Lineups
2-Man League Leaders • 2026 • Regular Season
Padded • All Leverage • Top 200
Why Padding Exists
Consider a simple question.
Early in the season you see two lineups:
- Lineup A: 300 minutes, +15 Net Rating
- Lineup B: 100 minutes, +20 Net Rating
Which lineup do you think is better?
More importantly:
Which one would you bet on to finish the season with the higher net rating?
Most people choose Lineup A.
Not because +15 is larger than +20.
Because 300 minutes is stronger evidence than 100 minutes.
Small samples are volatile. A few hot shooting stretches, a few opponent misses, and a lineup's rating can spike. As the sample grows, those swings begin to average out.
The Leaderboard Problem
This creates a problem when ranking lineups.
If we simply sort by Net Rating, the leaderboard will be dominated by tiny samples. A lineup that played 10 minutes and went +40 would appear at the top.
That clearly isn't what anyone means by “the best lineup.”
So the usual solution is to introduce a minutes cutoff.
But that only partially solves the issue.
A lineup that barely clears the threshold still has a much easier path to an extreme rating than one that has played hundreds of minutes. Smaller samples fluctuate more, which means they are naturally overrepresented at the extremes of the leaderboard.
The Lineup-of-the-Year Question
Imagine we wanted to crown the best lineup performance of the season.
How should we do it?
Net Rating alone? A tiny sample wins.
Net Rating with a minutes cutoff? Now the winner is often the lineup that happened to run hot just above the threshold.
Raise the cutoff further? Now we begin excluding genuinely dominant lineups that simply did not accumulate enough minutes.
Each approach forces an uncomfortable tradeoff between performance and sample size.
Padding
Padding resolves this tradeoff.
Instead of discarding small samples, we simply temper them according to how much evidence exists behind them.
On Databallr, every lineup begins with the equivalent of:
- ~266 minutes of league-average offense
- ~410 minutes of league-average defense
Since the table is shown in minutes, the cleanest way to think about the prior is exactly that: about 266 offensive minutes and 410 defensive minutes of league-average play.
Under the hood, that corresponds to 550 offensive possessions and 850 defensive possessions.
What This Means in Practice
A cleaner way to feel the math is to ask how much of an observed edge survives the prior.
So at 266 real minutes, a +10 offensive edge gets cut to +5.0. The same +10 defensive edge only keeps about 39.3% of itself, landing at +3.9, because defense carries the larger prior.
That is the core idea: offense and defense do not stabilize at the same speed, so the same real-minute sample gets trusted differently on each side of the ball.
Padding Sandbox
Why This Works
Small samples are volatile. Large samples are stable.
Padding allows every lineup to appear on the leaderboard while ensuring that extreme results backed by very little evidence do not dominate the rankings.
Only once the sample gets much larger does the neutral prior fade into the background and the lineup's observed play start to dominate the estimate.
The result is a leaderboard that better answers the real question: which lineups have actually been the most impressive this season?
