Full Analysis
Offense
Ryan Kalkbrenner might be the best embodiment of an “NBA-ready backup big” in the 2025 draft. With five years of college experience, elite rim finishing, and a subtle-yet-legitimate evolution as a passer and shooter, he offers a well-rounded skill set that is more functional than flashy, but no less effective.
At the core of Kalkbrenner’s offensive value is his finishing. His timing, coordination, and touch are exceptional around the basket. He’s not just a volume dunker, though his 86 dunks led Division I this year, but a versatile interior scorer. He converts over 75% of his halfcourt rim attempts and ranks in the top 90th percentile across almost every big-man scoring playtype (cuts, rolls, putbacks, post-ups). His footwork is clean, his hands are magnetic, and his balance through contact is veteran-like. He doesn’t have much shot creation, but when given a runway, he’s nearly automatic.
Kalkbrenner also shows encouraging signs as a passer. He’s not a short-roll hub or Nikola Jokić disciple, but he’s capable and occasionally crafty. His bounce passes to cutters, pick-and-pop reads, and kickouts show that he can keep the offense flowing. His assist-to-turnover ratio has improved, even if his reads can still occasionally be rushed under pressure.
Then there's the shooting. Most “classic bigs” toss up a few threes late in college, and draft season becomes a highlight reel of practice clips that never translate. But with Kalkbrenner, there's finally a version of that trope that might actually work. Over the last two years, he's shot 33-of-99 from beyond the arc, a modest but real 33.3% clip on pick-and-pop looks and spot-ups. It’s not a volume weapon yet, and the release can be a bit slow to unfold, but the footwork, rhythm, and high release are all there. For once, this doesn’t feel like the empty-calorie stretch-5 chatter. Among all the “I swear this big can shoot” declarations we’ve seen in draft cycles, Kalkbrenner may be the first where a Brook Lopez-lite trajectory actually seems plausible, not just in theory, but on tape.
Defense
Kalkbrenner is one of the premier drop defenders in the class, a true paint anchor who deters drives with his sheer size, reach, and elite vertical timing. He isn’t the twitchiest athlete, but he consistently blocks shots without fouling, an increasingly rare combination in college bigs. His 7.7% block rate pairs with a paltry 2.2 fouls per 100 possessions, and he routinely alters shots while staying vertical.
His discipline and understanding of angles are high-level. He forces floaters, discourages layups, and understands how to bait guards into difficult decisions. He even generates blocks beyond the restricted area with quick hands and anticipation. Few bigs are as technically sound as Kalkbrenner around the rim.
However, his limitations do show in space. He doesn’t switch well and can be exposed by guards in isolation. His hips are a bit stiff, and his recovery speed is average. Against spread pick-and-roll attacks or teams that hunt mismatches, he’ll need a strong scheme behind him.
The most disappointing area defensively is rebounding. Kalkbrenner has size and positioning but too often loses physical battles or fails to pursue the ball with urgency. His defensive rebounding rate (18.6%) is low for someone with his tools, and he sometimes relies on guards to clean up misses he should own. Fixable with strength and mindset, but it’s a glaring area for improvement.
Looking Ahead
Kalkbrenner enters the league with one of the highest floors among bigs in the class. He’s a proven rim protector, elite finisher, and intelligent offensive role player who can screen, roll, and keep the ball moving. That profile alone carves out a decade-long role as a reliable backup or third center.
What makes him more than a floor pick, though, are the flashes: the catch-and-shoot threes, the skip passes out of the short roll, and the high-IQ reads that hint at a more modern toolkit. There’s real potential for him to evolve into a Brook Lopez-style stretch-and-protect backup, a low-usage 5 who gives your bench spacing without compromising rim defense.
Yes, we’ve seen this movie before: an older center shows a few made threes and the buzz builds. But unlike the countless “stretch-5s” whose shooting never materialized, Kalkbrenner’s mechanics, results, and touch all suggest it actually might. He’s not a Lopez clone, but he’s the first traditional college big in a long time where that archetype seems like a realistic outcome, not just wishcasting.
He may never be a star or starter, but Ryan Kalkbrenner is a plug-and-play big who’s ready now, and still has a bit more in the tank than most assume. If the jumper continues to progress and the rebounding effort ticks up, he could quietly become one of the most valuable second-unit bigs in the NBA.