Ace Bailey Frame: 6'7.5", 202.8 lbs Wingspan: 7'0.5" Position: Wing Team: Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2025 Draft Age: 18

Offense Bailey’s offensive value lies primarily in his exceptional pull-up shooting and athleticism, which together give him enormous scoring potential from anywhere on the floor. At Rutgers, Bailey put up 17.6 points per game on a middling 53.6 TS%, often forced to shoulder difficult shot-making duties due to a lack of surrounding creators and finishers. His signature skill, hitting tough, contested pull-up jumpers from midrange, stands out clearly on tape. He confidently elevates over defenders, showing great flexibility, balance, and body control, resulting in difficult makes even with minimal separation. Bailey converted 36.4% of his midrange pull-ups and consistently hunted these shots as his primary weapon. He shoots with a smooth, high release, hard to fully contest, even under intense defensive pressure. His soft touch extends into floaters and turnaround jumpers around the lane, indicating strong potential as a multi-level scorer once his shot selection and efficiency improve. However, significant concerns about Bailey’s offense center around shot creation, handle, and decision-making. Despite taking 4.5 three-pointers per game and making 34.6%, Bailey struggled greatly shooting off-the-dribble from beyond the arc (just 24.4% on pull-up threes). His ball-handling mechanics are loose and inconsistent, causing trouble creating separation against athletic, physical defenders. As a result, his penetration game suffered, and Bailey only shot 42.1% on half-court layups, often looking rushed or physically overmatched on his drives. His lack of strength compounds these struggles, limiting his ability to finish through contact or draw fouls consistently. Another key limitation is Bailey’s playmaking. He recorded only 38 assists against 61 turnovers, often demonstrating tunnel vision, slow processing, and inaccurate passing. Bailey primarily looks to shoot, rarely leveraging his scoring gravity to find teammates. This heavily isolation-based style (104 isolation possessions, top percentile in college basketball) led to frequent contested jumpers and inefficient possessions. In the NBA, Bailey’s initial role must narrow significantly to succeed; more catch-and-shoot (38.7% on spot-up threes), cuts (75.6 TS%), and simplified offensive reads. His path forward involves improving ball-handling and strength to attack closeouts, increasing his shot selection discipline, and expanding passing awareness. A focused developmental plan could turn him into a valuable complementary scoring wing in a simplified role, similar stylistically to Michael Porter Jr. or Rudy Gay. Defense Defensively, Bailey’s physical tools suggest intriguing upside. Standing 6'7.5" with a 7' 0.5" wingspan, he profiles as a switchable wing defender who can disrupt offenses with length and athleticism. He averaged 1.3 blocks per game (4.1 BLK%) at Rutgers, showcasing notable rim protection instincts for a perimeter player, especially when helping from the weak side. His explosiveness off the floor allowed him to recover effectively, contest shots late, and erase mistakes. Bailey also displayed solid defensive playmaking instincts, using his wingspan and anticipation to jump passing lanes and ignite transition opportunities. At his best, he switches fluidly onto guards, sliding laterally and using his length to alter shots effectively. These traits indicate the possibility of a disruptive, versatile defensive presence at the next level, similar to someone like Peyton Watson or Jaden McDaniels. However, substantial questions remain regarding Bailey’s defensive fundamentals and motor. He often loses awareness off-ball, frequently caught ball-watching, missing backdoor cuts, or failing to rotate properly. His screen navigation is inconsistent, hindered by a thin frame and poor technique, allowing opponents easy separation. Strength limitations compound these struggles, making it difficult to hold ground against physical NBA wings or forwards. While Bailey's flashes of defensive brilliance are undeniable, his effort and consistency wavered frequently at Rutgers. His motor fluctuated; he rarely displayed sustained intensity or made multiple effort plays. Addressing these concerns, improving strength, awareness, technique, and consistently applying effort, will dictate his defensive ceiling. Initially, Bailey fits best into an NBA defensive scheme that leverages his length and athleticism, emphasizing switch-heavy, aggressive perimeter schemes rather than relying heavily on traditional help-defense or complex rotations. Looking Ahead Teams intrigued by high-level shotmaking and raw athletic upside will naturally gravitate toward Ace Bailey as a lottery-level talent. If Bailey improves his handle, decision-making, and shot selection, he could evolve into a potent second-option scorer capable of stretching defenses and complementing primary initiators, in the mold of Michael Porter Jr. However, Bailey’s developmental needs are extensive and significant. Without substantial improvement in ball-handling, decision-making, and defensive discipline, his NBA impact may be limited to a narrower role; primarily a streaky scorer whose efficiency and overall impact remain inconsistent. The most realistic and beneficial outcome would see Bailey embrace an off-ball scoring role: catching-and-shooting, cutting aggressively, attacking closeouts effectively, and becoming a disciplined, versatile wing defender. Under these circumstances, Bailey could thrive as a high-end complementary wing who provides spacing, scoring punch, and defensive versatility, adding substantial playoff value. Ultimately, Bailey represents a high-risk, high-reward investment whose development trajectory requires patience, clear role definition, and significant refinement. The payoff is considerable: a jumbo-sized scoring wing with rare pull-up talent and defensive upside. But the path to that payoff demands careful management of expectations and diligent, structured growth at the NBA level.